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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 10 March 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE ENSURES ENERGY SUPPLY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has seen more than 500 coal mines resume production in February, which ensured energy supply amid the ou ...
Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s o ...
Monday, 09 March 20
KOREA EAST-WEST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 150,000 MT OF MIN 4,400 - MAX 5,499 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD. of South Korea has issued an international tender for total 150,000 MT of LCV coal for May – Jun ...
Sunday, 08 March 20
SUPRAMAX: A 55,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY FROM EAST KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO VIETNAM AT $9,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
SUPRAMAX/ULTRAMAX - A 56,000DWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY EAST COAST INDIA, IN THE $6,000S
SUPRAMAX/U ...
Friday, 06 March 20
CHINA RESUMES 83.4 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 83.4 percent of its coal production capacity amid the fight against the novel coronavirus outbreak, the National Energy Administr ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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