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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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