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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
Friday, 13 March 20
TOP 4 ACCOUNTING CONSIDERATIONS AFTER THE IMPLEMENTATION OF IMO 2020 - PWC
To install or not to install?
Following the IMO 2020 global low sulphur cap for marine fuel effective since 1 January 2020, many shi ...
Friday, 13 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 13 March 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 390,000 MT OF THERMAL COAL FOR MAY-JUNE 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), has issued an international tender for total 390,000 Metric Tons of coal for May & June ...
Thursday, 12 March 20
INDIA 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS RISE 12.6% TO NEARLY 200 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
India’s thermal coal imports rose 12.6% to nearly 200 million tonnes in 2019, government data reviewed by Reuters showed, reflecting the seco ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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