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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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