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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
BIMCO REVISES 2020 FORECAST FOR MAIN SHIPPING MARKETS
The coronavirus pandemic is impacting global shipping demand for 2020 negatively. The speed of the virus spread makes it difficult to assess the fu ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED IN 2019 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal exports declined to 93 million short tons (MMst), a 20% decrease from the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Informatio ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR MIN 3,700 OR MIN 4,200 NCV LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), has issued an international tender for total 160,000 MT (±10%) (80,000 x 2 Panamax) of ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
DRY BULK: INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES PROVIDING A BIG BOOST IN THE EAST WHERE SENTIMENT FOR HANDIES ALSO STARTED IMPROVING - INTERMODAL
The BDI ended last week with small gains on the back of an encouraging number of cargoes out of key trading regions that helped sustain the reserve ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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