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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 28 March 20
ASIA'S COAL MARKETS DIVERGE ON QUALITY LINES AS CORONAVIRUS HITS INDIA - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal market is increasingly diverging between higher-quality Australian coal, where prices are holding up despite the economi ...
Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain t ...
Friday, 27 March 20
S.KOREA Q1 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SET FOR 10-YR LOW ON ANTI-POLLUTION MEASURES - REUTERS
South Korea’s first-quarter thermal coal imports are set to fall to a decade-low due to stricter air pollution measures, while the coronaviru ...
Friday, 27 March 20
PORT OF NEWCASTLE OPERATIONS CONTINUE WITH COVID-19 RESPONSE MEASURES IN PLACE
Port of Newcastle, like many organisations, is taking a precautionary approach to help manage COVID-19 risks in the community. Our focus is on ensu ...
Thursday, 26 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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