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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 03 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
TRADERS SCRAMBLE TO SELL CHEAP CRUDE CARGOES AS GLUT GROWS - REUTERS
Oil traders across the globe are offering cargoes far in advance as rapidly vanishing demand drives key physical crude prices to multi-decade lows, ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is an old, allegedly Chinese, saying suggesting that living in “interesting” times usually refers to times of trouble. The latest ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
FREIGHT MARKET: DRY BULKERS - SPOT MARKET 23-29 MARCH 2020
Capesize
The rebound in freight rates resumed this past week, with rates man-aging to post further gains by week’s end. The BCI is in negat ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
DRY BULK: Q1 HAS BEEN THE WORST QUARTER NOTED FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS NOW - ALLIED RESEARCH
At this point, the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be monopolizing all market (as well as all other) discussions across the world and any market insight ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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