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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 31 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.43 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.17 points Monday, down 0.43 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
COAL POWER REMAINS IN GLOBAL DECLINE, DESPITE CHINESE SURGE - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The impact of coronavirus has prompted a surge in coal-fired power plant construction permits in China, with the Chinese government issuing more pe ...
Monday, 30 March 20
CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR SHIPS AND CREW - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Countries around the world are strengthening their border control measures in order to prevent the further spread of COVI ...
Monday, 30 March 20
LAY-UP AND RE-ACTIVATION REVISITED - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the maritime industry in previously unthinkable ways. Ports around the world are denyi ...
Monday, 30 March 20
PANAMAX: INDONESIA LACKED VOLUME, PARTLY DUE TO FORCE MAJEURE IN INDIAN PORTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As Covid-19 continued to ratchet up tensions across the globe, the Cape market dealt with the change to remote working. Most regions o ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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