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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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