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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.28 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.74 points Monday, down 0.28 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 23 March 20
CHARTERPARTY REQUIREMENTS TO NOTIFY CLAIMS - TAKE CARE! - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Voyage charterparties frequently require the owner to notify any claim with supporting documents within a relatively shor ...
Monday, 23 March 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED'S ONE-DAY OUTPUT PEAKS AT 3.17 MT - THE HINDU
Coal India Limited (CIL) output peaked at a new high of 3.17 million tonnes (MT) on March 20, overtaking the 3.14 MT production recorded on March 2 ...
Monday, 23 March 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.45 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JUNE & JULY 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO), on behalf of five Korean Gencos, has issued an international tender for total 1,450,000 MT (&pl ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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