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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 07 April 20
IS CHINA EMBARKING ON A MAJOR EXPANSION OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of t ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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