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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 06 May 20
KOSPO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 160,000 Metric Tons (MT) Low Calorific Value Coal for J ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
COST CHALLENGES IN A US$20/BBL WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
A new approach is needed to ensure supply sector resilience
How will US$20/bbl affect the oil and gas supply chain?
It’s going to g ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It comes as no surprise that activity in the dry bulk SnP market remains soft, with asset values caught in the downward spiral generated by the Cov ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
FLOATING STORAGE OF OIL CARGOES - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to a combination of circumstances there is now a worldwide shortage of storage space ashore for both unrefi ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
IRON ORE TRADE REMAINS REMARKABLY RESILIENT THIS YEAR, AT LEAST IN ASIA - BANCHERO COSTA
Iron ore trade remains remarkably resilient this year, at least in Asia, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19. In the first 4 months of ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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