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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 07 May 20
CRUDE OIL TANKER EARNINGS DROP 68% IN NINE DAYS - BIMCO
Crude oil tanker earnings have come down sharply in recent weeks with Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings from the Middle East Gulf to China d ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
UKRAINE PRODUCES 2.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN APRIL - UKRINFORM
Ukraine produced 2.5 million tonnes of coal in April 2020, which is 39% less than planned, according to the Coal Miners Union of Ukraine.
...
Thursday, 07 May 20
INDIA: GOVT TO DO AWAY WITH MANDATORY WASHING OF COAL FOR THERMAL POWER UNITS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre is planning to do away with the mandatory requirement of washing of coal before it is transported to thermal power stations. The Ministr ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CIL'S SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR FALLS IN MARCH AMID SLUMP IN COAL DEMAND - PTI
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned CIL registered a decline of eight per cent to 42.30 million tonne in March in the wake of slu ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL SHARPLY IN MAY 2020 DUE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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