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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 09 May 20
ANGLO AMERICAN CONSIDERS SPINNING OFF SOUTH AFRICAN COAL OPERATIONS - REUTERS
Diversified miner Anglo American said on Thursday it prefers unbundling and listing its thermal coal operations in South Africa on the Johannesburg ...
Friday, 08 May 20
THE COLLAPSE OF THE OIL AND BUNKER FUEL MARKETS IN EARLY 2020 - PETER SAND
The sulphur regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that came into force on 1 January 2020 took the centre stage in the shipp ...
Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory l ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IEEFA UPDATE: THE OUTLOOK FOR THERMAL COAL IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA
Seven headwinds are building to sustained growth in coal in Asia
The medium term outlook for thermal coal in Southeast Asia is posit ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IMO 2020: BUNKER CLAIMS HANDLING GUIDE FOR A NEW DECADE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
IMO 2020 is the term generally used to describe the following regulations under Annex VI of the International Convention ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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