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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 05 May 20
SUPRAMAXES: YTD SLIDE HAS BEEN 45%, WITH THE AVERAGE FOR 2020 TCA HOLDING AT US$5,793 - ALLIED
It has been almost three months since the WHO officially categorized the current coronavirus outbreak as a global pandemic, an outbreak that has br ...
Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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