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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
Friday, 01 May 20
LUKOIL SHARES LUBRICANT EXPERIENCE AFTER FIRST 100 DAYS OF OPERATION ON VLSFO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
After 100 days of VLSFO operation, LUKOIL Marine Lubricants is sharing recent experience on VLSFO operation with NAVIGO M ...
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub ...
Monday, 27 April 20
INCIDENT INVESTIGATION: SEARCH FOR THE CAUSE, NOT THE VILLAIN - GARD
Incident investigations often conclude with placing the blame for an incident on the crew. Causes of the incidents are usually identified as proced ...
Monday, 27 April 20
A 58,000DWT VESSEL WAS FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY WC INDIA, AT $4,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The tide turned this week for the Capesize market, as voyage rates registered dramatically falling fuel costs. This was led primarily ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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