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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 12 May 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESTART HAS SLOWLY BEGUN AS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD GRADUALLY - ALLIED
A global economic restart has slowly begun as countries around the world gradually set their return back to “normality”. Yet by all mea ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
CAN INDONESIA'S COAL INDUSTRY SURVIVE COVID-19? : IEEFA
Pandemic Lockdown and Slumping Prices Put Extreme Pressure on Coal Miners
Executive Summary
While attention has been focused on th ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO CLOCK RECORD 700 MILLION TONNES IN FY21: COAL SECRETARY - PTI
Coal Secretary Anil Jain said FY20 coal production was lower than the target of 660 million tonnes because of flooding of a key coal mine.
&nbs ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CORONAVIRUS PUTS MORE THAN A THIRD OF SEABORNE COAL SUPPLY AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
The full impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy is yet unclear. However, the demand destruction is already becoming evident, with ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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