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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. Th ...
Thursday, 14 May 20
NEW COVID-19 GUIDELINES FOCUS ON SAFE INTERFACE BETWEEN SHIP AND SHORE STAFF - GARD
At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global population, it is important that ships’ crew and port workers protect each other ...
Wednesday, 13 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.4 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.93 points Monday, down 0.4 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
South Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
OIL MARKET TURBULENCE PIVOTS FOCUS ON FLOATING STORAGE TECHNICAL NEEDS - LLOYD'S REGISTER
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negative oil prices and off-the-scale volatility in crude markets are positive for floating storage, as the next chapter ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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