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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
Monday, 18 May 20
THERMAL COAL SPOT PRICE TUMBLES 25 PER CENT, PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOME PRODUCERS - ABC RURAL
The spot price for thermal coal has fallen 25 per cent per cent in the past month with one leading analyst saying it is because of a reduction in d ...
Monday, 18 May 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 1.3 PCT IN JANUARY-APRIL: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 1.3 percent year on year to 1.15 billion tonnes in the first four months this year, official data showed.
&nbs ...
Sunday, 17 May 20
A 55,000 OPEN ILIGAN FIXING AT $6,500 VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A precipitous fall in the market this week had the Capesize 5TC shedding over 50 per cent in value. A small rebound at the end of the ...
Friday, 15 May 20
CHINA'S COAL CONSUMPTION TO FALL Y/Y IN SECOND QUARTER, IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN SECOND HALF - INDUSTRY BODY: REUTERS
China’s coal consumption is expected to decline in the second quarter from a year earlier, but will see an improvement in the second half of ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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