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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 21 May 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 610000 MT OF LCV AND HCV COAL FOR 2H 2020
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) has Issued an International Tender for 130,000 mt of 5700 NCV coal an ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
ADARO ENERGY BOOKED A 5% INCREASE IN COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME Y-O-Y IN 1Q2020
PT. Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia’s one of the largest coal miner, booked a 5% increase in coal production volume year-over-year in 1Q2020. The ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS HAVE BEEN SURGING THIS YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil soybean exports have been surging this year, thanks to a combination of strong demand from China, a bumper crop, and favourable exchange rat ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT
Seafarers keep maritime trade going so that the food, raw materials, energy and manufactured goods on which so many depend can continue moving arou ...
Tuesday, 19 May 20
AMENDMENT OF THE INDONESIAN MINING LAW: TYING UP LOOSE ENDS - UMBRA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The finalized draft of Law on the amendment of the Mining Law (Bill) was publicly released on 11 May 2020 and was then ap ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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