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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 27 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.94 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.03 points Monday, up 0.94 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non ...
Sunday, 24 May 20
A 63,000 FIXED DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY KOSICHANG AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of bounce momentum the market appears to have stalled out once again. The Capesize 5TC has more than doubled since last F ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN 7.2% IN Q1 ON LOW PRICES, CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, fell 7.2% in the first quarter because of low prices and coronavirus qu ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
EWP INVITES BIDS FOR 840,000 METRIC TONS OF MIN 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) has Issued an International Tender for total Max 840,000 Metric Tons of min 5 ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
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