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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 29 May 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF FIVE KOREAN GENCOS INVITED COAL BIDS FOR 5,700 & 4999 NCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf five (5) Korean Gencos has Issued an International Tender for tota ...
Friday, 29 May 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: NO QUICK RECOVERY FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET AS COVID-19 DIGS DEEPER
The outlook is poor for dry bulk, as the negative demand shock and overcapacity come together to send rates to multi-year lows, even a return to wo ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
COVID-19: A FORCE MAJEURE EVENT? - KYPRIANOU
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
While seeing the unexpected COVID-19 outbreak expanding worldwide and the first cases being identified in Cyprus, the com ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
OIL DEMAND RECOVERED BY 20% IN MAY AGAINST APRIL: RUSSIAN ENERGY MINISTER - TASS
Oil demand remains at a low level but the demand in May increased by 20% against April, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said, cited by the ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Earlier in May, China’s top leaders convened for the annual National People's Congress, following over two months of delays due to the co ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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