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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 01 June 20
SUPRAMAX: IN SOUTH EAST ASIA RATES TRADED SIDEWAYS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sober end to the week, with the market seemingly ready for the weekend. After a steady week of rate declines a small flurry of Atlan ...
Friday, 29 May 20
COVID-19: COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DIPS 22% TO 32 MT IN APRIL DUE TO DEMAND SLUMP - PTI
Over 95% of CIL’s production comes from its 171 open cast mines.
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned Coal In ...
Friday, 29 May 20
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE WARNS OF HIT FROM COAL PRICE SLUMP - REUTERS
Australia’s New Hope Corp Ltd said on Thursday that a sudden drop in thermal coal prices and lower output from its Queensland operations woul ...
Friday, 29 May 20
GOVT MAY LAUNCH COAL BLOCKS AUCTION PROCESS UNDER COMMERCIAL MINING ON JUN 11 - PTI
The Centre is likely to launch the process of coal blocks auction under commercial mining on June 11 and around 50 mines are expected to go under t ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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