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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
THE HISTORIC DECLINE OF US COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
The first commercial power plant in the US was Thomas Edison’s coal-fired Pearl Street station in lower Manhattan, which started operating in ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
COAL INDIA'S MAY SALES DRIVEN SHARPLY LOWER BY SLUMP IN POWER DEMAND - REUTER
Coal India’s sales fell 23.3% in May as utilities refrained from purchases amid record stockpiles and tepid demand because of a nationwide lo ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
TUAH TURANGGA AGUNG RECORDED 4.54 MILLION TONS OF COAL SALES IN THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF 2020
PT United Tractors Tbk through its subsidiary, PT Tuah Turangga Agung recorded 4.54 million tons of coal sales in the first four months of 2020, up ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
SOURING SINO-AUSTRALIA TRADE RELATIONS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Cooling relations between the commodity powerhouses of China and Australia may point to trade troubles ahead when the world emerges from the Covid- ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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