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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Tuesday, 17 December 19
BACK TO FUTURE FOR BUSH AS AUSTRALIA CONSIDERS MOVING AWAY FROM COAL NEWCASTLE - HERALD
Looking backwards could show the way forward for regional communities planning for a future beyond mining.
One of Australia’s ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.01 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points, down 0.01 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Taiy ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
YEAR 2019: IT IS LOOKING SET THAT THIS YEAR WILL BE ONE OF THE SLOWEST IN TERMS OF DRY BULK NEWBUILDING ACTIVITY - ALLIED
With just two weeks remaining before 2019 comes to an end, it is now looking set that this year will be one of the slowest in terms of dry bulk new ...
Monday, 16 December 19
ULTRAMAX: A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, FOR RE-DELIVERY TO CHINA AT $11,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was one-way traffic for the Capesize market this past week, with all routes giving up value. While downward momentum may have slowe ...
Monday, 16 December 19
THE OUTLOOK FOR U.S. THERMAL COAL IS INCREASINGLY STRESSED - MOODY'S
- Slowing global economic growth, trade tensions will continue to exert influence
- Coal's secular decline will persist in 2020
...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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