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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Saturday, 07 December 19
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL PRICE SURGE, WHILE OTHERS LANGUISH, IS TROUBLING - REUTERS
Coal prices around the world are gently sliding as demand from top importers such as China, India and even Europe remains subdued amid a so far mil ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL, THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX REMAINED IN POSITIVE MODE, DESPITE SOME AREAS LACKING FRESH ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week the Capesize market maintained healthy earnings, as an end of year surge took the Capesize 5TC back up to $25,202 by mid-wee ...
Friday, 06 December 19
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR DECEMBER INCREASES BY US 3 CENTS MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 December 19
IMO 2020 IS ABOUT TO GET REAL - GAVIN THOMPSON
As I write this edition of the APAC Energy Buzz from my desk in Singapore I can see ships. Lots of ships. No surprise given that Singapore is among ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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