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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Saturday, 07 December 19
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL PRICE SURGE, WHILE OTHERS LANGUISH, IS TROUBLING - REUTERS
Coal prices around the world are gently sliding as demand from top importers such as China, India and even Europe remains subdued amid a so far mil ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL, THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX REMAINED IN POSITIVE MODE, DESPITE SOME AREAS LACKING FRESH ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week the Capesize market maintained healthy earnings, as an end of year surge took the Capesize 5TC back up to $25,202 by mid-wee ...
Friday, 06 December 19
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR DECEMBER INCREASES BY US 3 CENTS MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 December 19
IMO 2020 IS ABOUT TO GET REAL - GAVIN THOMPSON
As I write this edition of the APAC Energy Buzz from my desk in Singapore I can see ships. Lots of ships. No surprise given that Singapore is among ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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