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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Sunday, 22 December 19
NMDC DIVERSIFIES INTO COAL MINING - THE HINDU
Iron ore mining major NMDC has been allocated two coal blocks in Jharkhand for commercial mining by the Union Ministry of Coal.
Both ...
Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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