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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Sunday, 22 December 19
NMDC DIVERSIFIES INTO COAL MINING - THE HINDU
Iron ore mining major NMDC has been allocated two coal blocks in Jharkhand for commercial mining by the Union Ministry of Coal.
Both ...
Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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