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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Thursday, 19 December 19
BANGLADESH'S NBR CUTS VAT ON COAL IMPORT FOR POWER PLANTS - THE DAILY STAR
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) reduced value added tax on the import of coal for power plants to 5 percent from present 15 percent for five ye ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
AVERAGE PRICES OF COAL IN 2018 WERE MORE THAN 60% HIGHER THAN IN 2016 - IEA
Coal use grew again in 2018.
Global coal demand increased by 1.1%, continuing the rebound that began in 2017 after three years of decline ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
ASIA IS SET TO SUPPORT GLOBAL COAL DEMAND FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS - IEA
Press Release: Global coal demand is expected to decline in 2019 but remain broadly stable over the next five years, supported by robust growth in ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know very well by now, the reduction in the maximum allowable sulphur content of marine fuels in 2020 is likely to have a massive impact ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
AUSTRALIA ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR TURNS SCROOGE ON COAL LOBBY: RUSSELL
Australia, which vies with Indonesia for the title of the world’s largest coal exporter, is planning for an electricity future where use of t ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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