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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Thursday, 12 December 19
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.28 MILLION TONS OF MIN.4,400 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,280,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Wednesday, 11 December 19
PANAMAX: THE MARKET REMAINED FIRM IN THE PACIFIC, WITH INCREASED ACTIVITY NOTED IN KEY AREAS, SUCH AS INDONESIA - ALLIED
Capesize – Positive momentum was resumed this past week, with earnings mak-ing some gains once again. This rising pattern was reflected in th ...
Tuesday, 10 December 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS IMO 2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CAP LOOMS - STANDARD CLUB
With less than a month to go for the impending IMO 2020 global sulphur cap, the club has started witnessing dispute cases relating to the measureme ...
Monday, 09 December 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO LTD IS INVITING OFFERS FOR MIN 3700 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for 160,000 Tons steam coal.
Acco ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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