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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
VLCC
Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA COAL RUNS, A 58,000DWT SHIP WAS RUMOURED FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, IN THE $4,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Closing out the first full trading week of 2020, the Capesize market is struggling to gain any solid positive upward traction. Opening ...
Friday, 10 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remains flat
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
...
Thursday, 09 January 20
NEW IMO LIFEBOAT REQUIREMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Three new compulsory IMO resolutions entered into force on 1 January 2020. These resolutions deal with the maintenance, t ...
Thursday, 09 January 20
INDIA'S NEW EASED MINING RULES TO ENHANCE FOREIGN PARTICIPATION IN COAL SECTOR: MINISTER
India’s cabinet has eased mining laws in a bid to attract foreign players to the domestic coal sector and reduce imports of the fuel, coal mi ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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