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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Thursday, 09 January 20
SUPRAMAX: A NUMBER OF INDONESIAN ROUND TRIPS WERE REPORTED AT BELLOW USD 5,000 PD LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The Capesize market has hit new low's in the first week of the new year, with the West Australia route being fixed at USD 6.6 being ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
WHAT IS BIMCO THINKING ABOUT 2020? - BIMCO
Every year, BIMCO considers what is in store for the shipping industry and for BIMCO in the coming years, while also reflecting on the year gone by ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
VINACOMIN SETS TO SELL 49 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2020 - VIETNAM NET
The Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited (Vinacomin) has set to sell 49 million tonnes of coal in 2020, a year-on-y ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE CUTS 18.95 MLN TONNES OF CAPACITY IN 2019 - XINHUA
North China’s Shanxi Province reduced its coal production capacity by 18.95 million tonnes by closing 18 coal mines in 2019.
A ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
JANUARY INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS US$ 0.37 MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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