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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and i ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
DRY BULK MARKET: "THIS IS NOT THE END OF COAL" SAYS IEA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A historic drop in coal-fired electricity generation will not sway global coal demand from its upward trajectory through to 2024, though growth wil ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bunker fuel is a commodity and, like all commodities, is produced and sold according to specifications. Bunkers are usual ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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