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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Tuesday, 07 January 20
CLEANER AIR IN 2020: 0.5% SULPHUR CAP FOR SHIPS ENTERS INTO FORCE WORLDWIDE - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
From 1 January 2020, the maximum sulphur content of marine fuels is reduced to 0.5% (down from 3.5%) globally – reducing air pollution and pr ...
Tuesday, 07 January 20
BHP EYES INDIA FOR COAL GROWTH AS CHINA DEMAND FLATLINES - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Australia’s largest miner, BHP, believes the long-term trajectory of the emerging economy of India and the acceleration of its steelmaking ou ...
Sunday, 05 January 20
BUNKER QUALITY CLAIMS IN 2020 - ISSUES TO CONSIDER - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In recent years the shipping industry has faced a significant number of bunker quality claims, most notably ari ...
Saturday, 04 January 20
SUPRAMAX: A 53,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY INDONESIA TRIP TO CHINA AT $4,000 AND A 58,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP TO THAILAND AT $5,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The New Year started with an erosion on pre-Christmas rates as the higher low sulphur fuel costs due to IMO 2020 affected levels. From ...
Thursday, 02 January 20
DMO 2020 PRICE SET FOR ELECTRICITY SECTOR - IAN WOLLFF
On the 26th December 2019, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) issued the decree No. 261.K/30.MEM/2019 about the States needs for c ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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