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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Thursday, 16 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA ROUND VOYAGE FIXING AROUND LOW/MID USD 6,000 BSS APS INDO - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Still very rough seas for the big ships, with the majority of the fleet trading Far East or fronthaul and consequently earning far les ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
ASIA PACIFIC GAS AND LNG - 6 THEMES TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
NEWS RELEASE
Wood Mackenzie has identified six themes that will impact Asia Pacific’s gas and LNG markets in 2020
Asian LNG spot pr ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: 'SLOWBALISATION" IS THE NEW GLOBALISATION - PWC
Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. Below we present a summary of some of the themes we ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Happy New Year and all the best for IMO 2020 !!
The early days of IMO 2020 coming into force have certainly had an impact on the indus ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SOLAS AMENDMENTS ENTERING INTO FORCE 1 JANUARY 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
While the latest amendments to MARPOL annex VI which entered into force on 1 January 2020 limiting the SOx emissions from ships has been the centre ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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