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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Saturday, 18 January 20
BIMCO: LOW-SULPHUR FUEL SALE JUMPS TO A 70% SHARE IN SINGAPORE, AS THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP KICKS IN
The final quarter of 2019 marked a massive decline of HSFO sales, as the industry transitioned into compliance of the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap (IMO2020 ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
GERMAN STEAM COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 PLUMMETED BY 17 % - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
Press Release: According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), world trade in h ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
A 61,400 DWT FIXED FROM SOUTH EAST ASIA DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA IN THE LOW $7,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was relatively stable over this past week putting an end to the past months of more extreme declines. While the Capesize 5T ...
Friday, 17 January 20
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 65 MMST (9%) TO 690 MMST IN 2019. IN 2020, COAL PRODUCTION WILL DECLINE BY A FURTHER 14% TO 597 MMST
U.S. Coal Supply.
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 65 million short tons (MMst) (9%) to 690 MMst in 2019. In 2020, EIA ...
Friday, 17 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index, a gauge of coal p ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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