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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Tuesday, 21 January 20
ASIA'S APPETITE FOR COAL GROWS, WITH CHINA THE KEY DECIDER - NIKKEI
Although renewable power generation is expected to rise significantly in Asia, India’s vast electricity needs will still underpin global dema ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
THERMAL COAL PRICES SET FOR RECOVERY THIS YEAR AS OVERSUPPLY TIGHTENS - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices are expected to recover this year after losing around a third of their value last year as demand from some south-east Asian cou ...
Monday, 20 January 20
INDIA TO STOP SUBSTITUTABLE COAL IMPORT; CAN GO FOR AUCTION OF 100 FULLY EXPLORED NEW BLOCKS: JOSHI - PTI
The Cabinet recently approved promulgation of Mineral Laws (Amendment) Ordinance 2020 to amend Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation ) Act ...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA DECEMBER COAL OUTPUT UP 2.4 PERCENT ON YEAR - STATS BUREAU: REUTERS
China produced 331.74 million tonnes of coal in December, up 2.4 percent on the year, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.
...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA IMPORTED 124.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL FROM INDONESIA IN 2019, UP 15.1 PERCENT YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had expected that in the months of 2019 to come the government would clamp down s ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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