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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market i ...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
NORDEN HAS BEEN AWARDED A 3-YEAR CONTRACT FOR THE TRANSPORTATION OF COAL FROM INDONESIA TO HONG KONG
NORDEN has been awarded a 3-year contract with a power company in Hong Kong for the transportation of coal from Indonesia to Hong Kong.
...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
THE AUGUST 2019 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS THE FIRST MONTHLY GAIN SINCE AUGUST 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Monday, 19 August 19
INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, A 82,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY CHINA VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY JAPAN, IN THE MID $16,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market was buoyant in both basins this week, posting gains across the board. After bottoming out the previous week, rates ...
Sunday, 11 August 19
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000DWT VESSEL OPEN KEMAMAN FIXED FOR TWO TO THREE LADEN LEGS, REDELIVERY SINGAPORE-JAPAN, AT $12,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
With typhoon Lekima gathering pace, numerous China ports were closed by the end of the week and will likely be for two to three days. ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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