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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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