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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
...
Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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