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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
Monday, 09 September 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA A 58,000-TONNER FIXED DELIVERY FUZHOU, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,800
Capesize
0px The market reached new heights this week as the 5TC topped $38,014, a level not seen in the sector since 2013. Fridays 5TC closed ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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