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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
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