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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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