We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing ...
Sunday, 13 October 19
INDONESIA: PANAMAX VESSELS OPEN SOUTH CHINA WERE REPORTEDLY FIXED AT $14,000 LEVEL, WITH REDELIVERY BACK IN CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market managed to find a floor and rally a little this week after several weeks of declines. While the West Australia to ...
Friday, 11 October 19
INDIAN MINERS REJECT PLAN TO LINK NATIONAL COAL INDEX TO FOREIGN PRICES - REUTERS
India’s miners are rejecting a government proposal to establish a national coal index that would be linked to international prices, documents ...
Friday, 11 October 19
THE OCTOBER BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DECLINES TO LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
|
|
|
Showing 1316 to 1320 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
|
| |
| |
|
