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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing ...
Sunday, 13 October 19
INDONESIA: PANAMAX VESSELS OPEN SOUTH CHINA WERE REPORTEDLY FIXED AT $14,000 LEVEL, WITH REDELIVERY BACK IN CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market managed to find a floor and rally a little this week after several weeks of declines. While the West Australia to ...
Friday, 11 October 19
INDIAN MINERS REJECT PLAN TO LINK NATIONAL COAL INDEX TO FOREIGN PRICES - REUTERS
India’s miners are rejecting a government proposal to establish a national coal index that would be linked to international prices, documents ...
Friday, 11 October 19
THE OCTOBER BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DECLINES TO LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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