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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SINGAPORE'S APEX TO LAUNCH LOW-SULFUR FUEL OIL CONTRACT AHEAD OF NEW SHIPPING RULES - REUTERS
Singapore-based Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) will launch a low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) futures contract on Friday aimed at helping shipping and ener ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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