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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 17 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country’s ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
INDIA CALLS FOR A RESET OF CLIMATE DEBATE ON COAL AS A FUEL - LIVEMINT
India on Tuesday called for a reset on climate debate on coal as a fuel, in the backdrop of India becoming one of the top renewable energy producer ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
LESSONS LEARNT FROM CREW INJURED IN HEAVY WEATHER - UK P&I CLUB COMMENTS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Stuart Edmonston, Loss Prevention at UK P&I Club, discusses an incident in which crew were injured whilst on deck in ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In perhaps the most interesting market conditions of the past years, the tanker and the dry bulk industry have created a positive sentiment with re ...
Tuesday, 15 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country's Co ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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