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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 17 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country’s ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
INDIA CALLS FOR A RESET OF CLIMATE DEBATE ON COAL AS A FUEL - LIVEMINT
India on Tuesday called for a reset on climate debate on coal as a fuel, in the backdrop of India becoming one of the top renewable energy producer ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
LESSONS LEARNT FROM CREW INJURED IN HEAVY WEATHER - UK P&I CLUB COMMENTS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Stuart Edmonston, Loss Prevention at UK P&I Club, discusses an incident in which crew were injured whilst on deck in ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In perhaps the most interesting market conditions of the past years, the tanker and the dry bulk industry have created a positive sentiment with re ...
Tuesday, 15 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country's Co ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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