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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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