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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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