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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, wh ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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