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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 26 November 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS 1 JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL CUT IN SULPHUR IN SHIP'S FUEL OIL LOOMS: IMO
“IMO 2020” requirements for ships to cut sulphur oxide emissions enter into effect in just over one month’s time. This will signi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 8 PC TO 253 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - PTI
Supply of coal by state-owned CIL to the power sector registered a decline of 8.5 per cent to 253 million tonnes in the April-October period of thi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
A 53,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $9,500 DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY VIETNAM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of value being eroded on the Capesize market, Friday brought improved sentiment across most of the routes. The 5TC averag ...
Monday, 25 November 19
KOWEPO INVITED 6.79 MILLION TONS OF (SUB)BITUMINOUS STEAM COAL BIDS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for 6,798,000 tons of coal for 5 years ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
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