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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 26 November 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS 1 JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL CUT IN SULPHUR IN SHIP'S FUEL OIL LOOMS: IMO
“IMO 2020” requirements for ships to cut sulphur oxide emissions enter into effect in just over one month’s time. This will signi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 8 PC TO 253 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - PTI
Supply of coal by state-owned CIL to the power sector registered a decline of 8.5 per cent to 253 million tonnes in the April-October period of thi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
A 53,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $9,500 DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY VIETNAM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of value being eroded on the Capesize market, Friday brought improved sentiment across most of the routes. The 5TC averag ...
Monday, 25 November 19
KOWEPO INVITED 6.79 MILLION TONS OF (SUB)BITUMINOUS STEAM COAL BIDS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for 6,798,000 tons of coal for 5 years ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
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