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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 22 November 19
FORTY PERCENT OF ADARO'S COAL SALES VOLUME IN 9M19 GOES TO THE SOUTHEAST ASIA REGION
PT Adaro Energy Tbk released its consolidated financial statements yesterday, for the nine month period, ending September 30, 2019.
...
Friday, 22 November 19
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL COAL MARKET PERSISTED IN 3Q19 - ADARO
Uncertainty in thermal coal market persisted in 3Q19, mainly due to the actions, or inactions, of China in setting policies for global coal market. ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CIL TO DEVELOP 55 NEW COAL MINES IN NEXT 5 YEARS: COAL MINISTER
State-owned CIL will develop 55 new coal mines and expand 193 existing ones in the next five years, Parliament was informed. The company is also un ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
4TH DEEP OFFSHORE WEST AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
4th Deep Offshore West Africa Congress 2020
17 Janaury 2020
Accra, Ghana
Press Release: Following the great succ ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
INDONESIA PLANS TO KEEP $70/T COAL PRICE CAP FOR PLN, DMO - REUTERS
Indonesia’s energy minister Arifin Tasrif said his ministry plans to maintain a price cap on coal being sold to state electricity utility, PT ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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