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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 22 November 19
FORTY PERCENT OF ADARO'S COAL SALES VOLUME IN 9M19 GOES TO THE SOUTHEAST ASIA REGION
PT Adaro Energy Tbk released its consolidated financial statements yesterday, for the nine month period, ending September 30, 2019.
...
Friday, 22 November 19
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL COAL MARKET PERSISTED IN 3Q19 - ADARO
Uncertainty in thermal coal market persisted in 3Q19, mainly due to the actions, or inactions, of China in setting policies for global coal market. ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CIL TO DEVELOP 55 NEW COAL MINES IN NEXT 5 YEARS: COAL MINISTER
State-owned CIL will develop 55 new coal mines and expand 193 existing ones in the next five years, Parliament was informed. The company is also un ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
4TH DEEP OFFSHORE WEST AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
4th Deep Offshore West Africa Congress 2020
17 Janaury 2020
Accra, Ghana
Press Release: Following the great succ ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
INDONESIA PLANS TO KEEP $70/T COAL PRICE CAP FOR PLN, DMO - REUTERS
Indonesia’s energy minister Arifin Tasrif said his ministry plans to maintain a price cap on coal being sold to state electricity utility, PT ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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