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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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