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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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