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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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